Earlier this year, the Arlington Institute, a futurist think tank, sponsored a stimulating conference focused on scenario planning for the coming transition.  Nearly one hundred people worked in teams, projecting likely consequences to “if-then” questions, and a picture of what life would be like if the transition followed their assumptions.

I built a matrix of eight resulting scenarios, looking for commonalities among each … essentially trying to figure out for myself what the “most likely” scenario would be for the coming transition.  (Actually, the transition is already happening.)  Without feigning to be “Karnak, the Magnificent,” here are pieces of what I believe is the most likely coming scenario.

The transition will be initially gradual, as

some of it is already happening, and then faster

as existing systems of government and finance collapse.

 

History:

As fossil fuel costs rise and availability decreases, major financial problems will hit nations.  Governments are ineffective, leading to loss of confidence and less tax revenue – cutting services further.  People form small communities, with their own utilities and services.  (All of this is already happening and the trend will continue.  New financial systems, with local people and money, are rising.)

Structure:

Small communities form in rural areas, to survive.  (Some already exist and are transitioning, now.)  There will be much chaos during this transition.  Then people will move past survival to “self-confidence” and then “collaborative decision-making.”  People will value knowledge, sustainable living, and helping others – leading to a win-win climate.

Differences:

Millions may die.  (This part upsets me, as I hear projections ranging from 20% to 80% “die-off.”  But it’s already beginning.)  Cities will crumble.  (E.g. Flint, MI has 40% housing abandoned, and they’re not alone.)  Meanwhile, self-reliance grows, of necessity.  Then, inter-dependence grows.  Then community-based trade.  Then trade between these small communities, eventually becoming a global network.  Sustainability includes better food quality, better overall health, and better fitness.

Social Support Systems:

Local currencies.  Home schooling.  Consensus decisions.  Earth honoring.  Less waste and more material re-use.  CSAs for food.  A “Value Economy.”

Kinship:

Extended family for kinship.  The family unit is the community.  Older people need financial support;  they care for the young.  The young later care for the older, as they age in place.

Education:

Lifelong education, all within the community.  Less “higher education.”  May or may not have electronic component if (1) Internet still works, and (2) community chooses not to isolate itself.  More education regarding food, health, sustainable living … how to make soap or produce power, etc.  Many are skills from which people are now disconnected.  With widespread deaths, much knowledge is lost;  the remaining people value the remaining knowledge.

Economics:

More barter and use of local currencies.  (I was amazed at how many local currencies are already being used in the U.S.  It was more thoroughly detailed in my Sustainability book than I would have imagined.)

Political:

Shift to collaborative mentality.  “Politics” evolves to “Local dialogue.”  Communities become more like-minded, but all are more Earth conscious.

Religion & Recreation:

More living with natural Earth cycles.  More canning of foods.  More leisure.  At time of initial chaos, people turn to religions for solace;  that evolves to Earth-based religions … and more local.

Association:

More organically-formed local groups.  Much is nature and food based.  Small groups collaborate.  Some altruism evolves.

Health:

As cities crumble, much knowledge is lost.  Can’t train the next generation of heart surgeons.  Health-to-food connection is stronger.  More orientation to homeopathy, herbs, self-care.

Historical problems:

If there’s a new power source, who owns it?  It has to be local.  Currency keys to value, not trust.  (E.g.  “Ithaca Hours” key to time, where today’s currency is fiat, based purely on confidence … in the dollar or gold, etc.)  Smaller farms use more people in growing food.

New Capabilities:

In difficult times, humans use more of their capabilities … intelligence, wisdom, consciousness, oneness.  Learn to live close to the land.  If frightened, people will burn down anything to stay warm.  The world is slower, with more dialogue.  More people have food skills.

As you reflect on what I see as the “most likely” scenario, you may also see much of this already happening.  Similarly, you might also see much of this as total nonsense.  As I said, I’m not Karnak, the Magnificent.  I have no crystal ball.  But when you see 27 dots in a row, you can – within some range – begin for foresee where the next few dots will be.

If you think aspects of this scenario are seriously flawed, then build one yourself.  Begin with what you see as clearly happening.  Project it forward.  Then think about what the spin-off picture might look like.

The thinking alone will help in the coming transition.  When you’ve at least thought about where we’re going, as events happen, their shock value will be far less, and you’ll be in a better frame of mind to adapt and respond.